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written on: 10-26-2007
An answer to how damaging would Turkish economic sanctions be to the Kurdistan Regional Government in Northern Iraq . Would Turkey also be harmed?
I think an economic embargo could only be effective if sanctioned with a strategic product. The only strategic product Turkey have against northern Iraq is electricity. But, Turkey provides only 30% of the total electricity consumed in the region. Turkey's hand is not as powerful as Russia's hand was when they sanctioned a gas embargo against Ukraine . I believe economic sanctions against Iraq could be partly damaging and will have equal counter-effects in the southeastern part of Turkey where unemployment is at very high levels. Exported products like home appliances could easily be replaced by finding other global providers who will sell for a little more due to added transportation costs. Construction industry is also a major income for turkey that will get hit. Countries like France are already taking steps to open both commercial offices and consulates in the northern Iraq to increase their share of the pie. Francois Tissot, (if I am not mistaken), who helped move the Iraqi refuges from Iraq to France during the 1st Gulf War, will be appointed ambassador to the northern region. I think an economic embargo by Turkey will provide other countries with many opportunities to secure long-term sustainable profits doing business in the region.
And, all business associations in Turkey have stated in the press that they will comply with the government's decision of an embargo if there will be any. At the height of nationalism and public sensitivity, I think this was the only way they could have responded against the on-going events. As you know, people are overly sensitive now with the recent losses and nobody dares to say that economic losses will be more important than those lives lost even though continued economic relations will help the government in their strategy of stopping future losses from occurring. I do not think all businesspeople necessarily believe an embargo will be productive even though they publicly state the opposite view.
1 - Given the high public pressure for action, why do you think Turkey is holding back on a large-scale military response so far?
and, What kind of pressure is the U.S. likely exerting to get Mr. Erdogan to wait?
An incursion that lacks full global support, mobile targets, possible civilian deaths or terrorists declared as civilians, potential economic losses that will be suffered, further exclusion from future political decisions in the region(the first was not being a part of the war - had Turkey accepted to be a part of the war, it will have a much stronger presence inside the Iraqi borders right now), increased sympathy in the region for PKK…
Positive outcome of an incursion will be limited.
I think RTE wants to refrain from a military interference but have all other parties clearly see that he is doing this although there is strong public opposition. If they started a military intervention two weeks ago, they would not have the limited support they now have from the EU and the US. I think, Turkey, until now, has successfully used the fact that it is capable of an intervention and that there is strong public pressure for its armed forces to proceed. The only problem for RTE is losing the support in the domestic arena. But, this has been more of a psychological war until now. If he succeeds in balancing the two, I think he will succeed in the long-term. He recently got elected so he still has over 4 years to resolve the issue without fear of going to the elections at the height of something like this. A part of his strategy in the last elections was to focus on nationalist voters. He now has time to focus on international alliances rather than scoring domestic points. I think the damaging effects an incursion will have on the financial markets is what they are more worried about since their economic policy is dependant on foreign capital at the cost of long-term losses. Costs of a military incursion will not hurt Turkey economically. It will rather be the outflow of foreign capital that will be more damaging.
by Ferit Mertol |
